Pat, the evaluation of recruits v applicants based on how far they go is more complicated than it might appear. The problem is that the casting has not been a random sample of each group. For example, the pure applicants on Samoa are Shambo 45, Betsy 48, Mike 62, and Russell S 42 ... all over 40. Realty Blurred has info on the schism inside SEG and CBS over the use of recruits and the assertion that applicants are used to fill "fodder" slots to prop up Lynne's recruits. Then there is the issue of the half applicants - those people who apply to TAR/BB/Pirates that get sent to Survivor, a rather solid group in Samoa; Ashley 22 (TAR), Natalie 26 (TAR), Laura 39 (TAR), Russell H 36 (Pirates). Tocantins was won by one of only 4 applicants, JT. Fiji had only 1 of 20 (one recruit walked off the set hours beore filming started) who was an applicant, the 53 year old and very fodder like, Gary.
I am still trying to compile a list of recruits versus applicants for all seasons. But as a proxie for recruits, Californians have finished one position lower (eliminated sooner) on average than the rest of the states, Among states with a statistically signifcant sample, Pennsylvanians are #1. In fact, Californians have finished lower than over 40s (who finish below 20s who finish below 30s).